Blog

August 24, 2009 – With the US still in a deep economic contraction with rising unemployment, why is the US stock market rising? The Pollyannas on Wall Street and the politicians in Washington would have you believe that the stock market is forecasting better times ahead.  I have an entirely different point of view. TheRead more

August 22, 2009 – The XAU Index continues to make good progress in building support.  One of these days this support will propel the XAU Index above resistance around the 152-154 area, which is the same area of resistance discussed many times recently. In the last commentary I suggested that the XAU Index would probablyRead more

August 10, 2009 – The Dow and other major stock market averages are rising because of the outlook for worsening inflation, and not improved economic conditions. The federal government is spending trillions of dollars to bail-out financial institutions and to meet the other spending aspirations of politicians. These dollars have to end up somewhere, andRead more

August 10, 2009 – I wrote the following 22 years ago this month. As the French say, Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose! Nothing has changed except the data, which I have updated in brackets so that I can make some comparisons in my comments below. “Full faith and credit. Bring these wordsRead more

August 10, 2009 – Given all the euphoria after the unemployment number was released on Friday, one would think that the economic contraction had ended. Unfortunately, the euphoria was misguided. The reality is that unemployment continues to worsen. Non-farm payrolls in July continued the dreadful, protracted decline that began from the peak of employment inRead more

The US dollar is still on the path to hyperinflation. Here are the criteria that I am watching to confirm that the US dollar continues to head for the fiat currency graveyard. 1) Yields on long-term US government paper have been rising ever since the aftermath of the Lehman collapse. As a currency moves towardRead more

The gold/silver ratio is falling.

Gold re-tested support.

August 10, 2009 – We have been holding goldgrams as our Core Currency Position, since March 23, 2001. On May 4th traders sold the US dollar by shorting the Dollar Index at 83.97. Stop out this trade if the Dollar Index closes above 80.80. The Dollar Index broke below 78.40, the low it made inRead more

August 10, 2009 – On July 13th traders sold short the 10-year T-note. The yield on the T-note at the end that day was 3.38%. Stop out this T-note short-sale if its yield closes any week below 3.46%, or on any Monday-to-Thursday below 3.34%. T-note yields have climbed since my recommended short sale, and closedRead more