Blog

November 24, 2008 – Gold remains in a bull market, but has been in a correction since making a new record high above $1020 in March. Gold’s $50 surge this past Friday put it once again at $800, but more importantly, is a strong indication that gold’s correction is ending. Therefore, there is no betterRead more

October 27, 2008 – To identify the primary trend of the stock market, I like to follow the trading pattern of the so-called ‘bellwethers ‘, key stocks that are important to the overall market because of their high capitalization, huge shareholder base and/or other reasons. Long-term readers of these letters know that I like toRead more

Oct 27, 2008 – In an article published in The New York Times on October 16th, Warren Buffet tells us that he has “been buying American stocks“. He has one of the best performance records of anyone, and has generated stunning investment results over the past four decades. For this reason, we should take noticeRead more

October 6, 2008 – One of the basic premises of my portfolio strategy is to avoid the US dollar. My basic recommendation in this regard is simple, straightforward and has been consistent now for several years. Don’t hold dollars in a bank. Don’t hold dollars in a money market fund. Don’t hold any dollar denominatedRead more

September 22, 2008 – In the last letter I commented on the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. My observation was: “This latest bailout of course begs the question, who will bailout the federal government?” That question has become even more important as the federal government has added new bailouts since then. The priceRead more

September 22, 2008 – The term ‘government money’ has been bandied about a lot in recent weeks. It is being portrayed as a near miraculous elixir with wonderful results when used for bailouts past, present and future. But government money comes with limitations. It is not a magic potion, and cannot cure all the illsRead more

Sept 9, 2008 – There was a thought-provoking book published last year entitled The Black Swan. It provides an insightful perspective into seemingly improbable events (i.e., a ‘black swan ‘) and our thinking that surrounds them. The author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb contends that black swans underlie most everything within our world, but we invariably failRead more

Aug 26, 2008 – A friend recently wrote to me saying that value is what you are offered when you want to sell something. I disagree. What is offered is a price, which may be above, below or at fair value of the item being sold. For example, we all know that stocks sell atRead more

August 25, 2008 – In the last letter I questioned whether the US government is solvent. All the available financial evidence as well as some simple logic says that it is not. The inevitable result of insolvency is debt repudiation, so an article in The Wall Street Journal on August 22nd entitled “Washington Is QuietlyRead more

August 4, 2008 – In my article on January 7th, I analyzed the federal government’s financial position using its consolidated financial statements, dubbed the Fiscal Year 2007 Financial Report of the United States Government. That article was posted on FinancialSense.com and is still available at the following link: www.financialsense.com The picture I painted was notRead more